PhD School Water Earth Systems

Extreme precipitation and hydrological impacts: theory and applications

Course overview

Several natural hazards are initiated and exacerbated by extreme precipitation events, including flash floods that occur in mountainous catchments and urban areas. Identifying the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, as well as how they are expected to change with climate change, is crucial for planning mitigation measures that can potentially mitigate the expected damages and risks. Furthermore, it is important to translate correctly the impact of these precipitation events into hydrological hazards. This can be obtained by analyzing extreme precipitation values, computing precipitation frequency curves, and then strategically selecting extreme precipitation events to simulate the precipitation-flood response. In this three-day course, students will be introduced to the concepts of extreme value analysis and will learn how to analyze precipitation extremes using both traditional and state-of-the-art methods that were developed in recent years. Further, students will be introduced to the concept of precipitation intensification in relation to climate change, as well as novel methods for quantifying the effects of climate change. As a final step, we will demonstrate how to transition from extreme precipitation predictions to flood assessments by utilizing novel statistical tools and incorporating them into flood inundation models.

• Speakers: Dr. Francesco Marra (UNIPD), Prof. Nadav Peleg (UNIL)
• Date: June 10-12, 2025 (3 days, 9 am to 5 pm)
• Location: Eawag, Dübendorf. Room FX B01
• Cost:
  • WES PhD School members: no fee
  • Others (please contact School.Earth-Water@unine.ch for confirmation):
    • Academic participants: 150 CHF per day
    • Industrial, government, etc.: 500 CHF per day
• Registration:
  • Please fill in the REGISTRATION FORM before May 25th, 2025
  • Registration is on a first-come, first-served basis. Attendance is limited to 20 people.

Program

Day 1: General introduction to precipitation extreme value analysis

• Introduction to extreme value theory
• Parameter estimation methods
• Precipitation physics 101
• Frequency curves for future climates: traditional and GWL approaches

Day 2: State-of-the-art EVA methods for precipitation analysis

• Non-asymptotic approaches
• Global warming and precipitation intensification
• The TENAX model

Day 3: From precipitation extremes to hydrological extremes

• The effect of modeling choices on updating IDF curves for climate change
• Introducing climate uncertainties into extreme precipitation analysis
• Forecasting hydrological extremes: WG, TENAX-CDS, and Copula-based models
• Novel tools for flood modelling and assessment
• Projected changes in short-duration precipitation extremes along the Alps

5 blocks of exercises are included and will be given in between these lectures.