Several natural hazards are initiated and exacerbated by extreme short-duration precipitation events, including debris flows, shallow landslides, and flash floods that occur in mountainous catchments and urban areas. Identifying the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, as well as how they are expected to alter with climate change, is crucial for planning mitigation measures that can potentially reduce the expected damages and risks. At the same time, it is important to translate the impact of these precipitation events into hydrological hazards. This can be obtained by analyzing extreme precipitation values, computing precipitation frequency curves, and then strategically selecting extreme precipitation events to simulate the precipitation-flood response. In this three-day course, you will be introduced to the concepts of extreme value analysis with a specific focus on the case of precipitation, and you will learn how to analyze short-duration precipitation extremes using both traditional and state-of-the-art statistical approaches developed in recent years. Further, students will be introduced to the concept of precipitation intensification in relation to climate change, as well as the most advanced methods for quantifying the effects of climate change. As a final step, we will demonstrate how to transition from extreme precipitation predictions to flood assessments by utilizing advanced statistical tools and how to incorporate them into flood inundation models.
How to Get There
The ETH Zurich, Hönggerberg campus can be reached easily by public transport from Zürich HB (main station) via tram and bus/shuttle connections. A valid ticket for zone 110 is required. Detailed travel information and the HIF building location can be found here.