Julie Lacroix (LAPS)

International migration is the main driver of population growth in Europe. However, the impact of immigration on the macro population structure varies substantially within countries, with immigrants traditionally settling in cities. As a response, state governments are increasingly seeking to manage migration flows at the subnational level to ensure greater spatial mixing and the regionalisation of immigration. Two striking examples include refugee dispersal policies and the active recruitment in the agricultural sector. Consequently, international migrants are now increasingly present in New Immigrant Destinations (NIDs thereafter), including rural areas, suburbs, and small towns. Nevertheless, scientific research has thus far failed to account for these new migration geographies and continued to adopt a narrow focus on metropolitan areas. Essential questions for effective policy implementation, including what drives immigrants to settle in NIDs and how emerging destination contexts shape immigrants’ lives thus remain unanswered.

This project provides a multi-scale spatial perspective of the patterns, mechanisms, and implications of immigrants’ distribution across the urban‒rural continuum, focusing on mobility to and from NIDs. Three objectives guide the project. First, the project seeks to establish the geography of primary and secondary moves distinguishing initial location choice from subsequent relocation within the destination country. By mapping the spatial distribution of the population and movements from one settlement type to another the project will highlight how the location choices of immigrants contribute to the reshaping of demographic structures and affect regional development (SP1 – Patterns). Second, the project will identify contextual characteristics making certain places more attractive for different subgroups of immigrants. In particular, it will contrast actual moving behaviours with stated location preferences identifying potential mismatches between preferred and chosen locations (SP2 – Mechanisms). Third, the project will investigate the role of contextual determinants and secondary migration in the economic integration process of immigrants (SP3 – Implications).

The analyses are conducted in Switzerland using exhaustive data on residential mobility and income (Statpop and CCO 2010-2023), a survey experiment on location preferences, and contextual indicators at various levels of geography (SFSO 2010-2023). It uses advanced statistical techniques adapted to longitudinal frameworks (e.g., multistate models, sequence analysis), and data mining techniques to provide a dynamic examination of immigrant trajectories in NIDs and consider place selection effects.

The project proposes a timely research agenda on spatial population dynamics in a context of increasing diversity, with results of interest to both academic and non-academic audiences. From an academic standpoint, it will engage in discussions about the applicability of established theories of migration studies beyond traditional contexts of reception. From a public policy perspective, it will provide new insights into the mechanisms underlying population distribution, its effects on regional development, and the implications of geographical dispersion for the integration of immigrants.