{"id":261,"date":"2025-04-01T13:07:41","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T11:07:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/?page_id=261"},"modified":"2025-08-11T11:06:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T09:06:02","slug":"pest","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/pest\/","title":{"rendered":"Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: Principles and Practice"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row margin_bottom=&#8221;mb-full&#8221;][vc_column width=&#8221;2\/3&#8243;]<div class=\"unine-text-block__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block\">\n\t\t<h2>Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: Principles and Practice<\/h2>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"unine-image__wrapper \">\n\t\t\t<a class=\"d-inline-block magnific-image\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1.jpg\" title=\"\" aria-label=\"\">\n\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-432x282.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-432x282.jpg 432w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-300x196.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-768x501.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-372x243.jpg 372w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-648x423.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-496x324.jpg 496w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-558x364.jpg 558w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-324x212.jpg 324w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1-279x182.jpg 279w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/1.jpg 795w\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" class=\"unine-image    mb-eighth\" width=\"432\" height=\"282\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"unine-text-block__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block\">\n\t\t<h3>Course Overview<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"149\" data-end=\"379\">This five-day course, led by <em data-start=\"178\" data-end=\"192\">John Doherty<\/em> (author of <a href=\"https:\/\/pesthomepage.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PEST<\/a>), covers modern inversion and uncertainty analysis techniques for subsurface flow models. Hands-on sessions show how to implement theory using the PEST and PEST++ suites.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"381\" data-end=\"715\">A key focus is the distinction between <strong>numerical modelling<\/strong> that is undertaken to understand how groundwater systems work\u00a0and <strong data-start=\"449\" data-end=\"478\">decision-support groundwater modeling<\/strong>.\u00a0While the latter must inform real-world management, it must do so under uncertainty\u2014since subsurface properties can never be perfectly known. The goal is not perfect prediction, but <strong data-start=\"662\" data-end=\"691\">bias-free decision-making<\/strong> that acknowledges risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"717\" data-end=\"732\">Topics include:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"733\" data-end=\"972\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"733\" data-end=\"775\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"735\" data-end=\"775\">History matching and data assimilation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"776\" data-end=\"829\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"778\" data-end=\"829\">Appropriate model complexity and parameterization<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"830\" data-end=\"862\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"832\" data-end=\"862\">Non-stationary geostatistics<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"863\" data-end=\"972\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"865\" data-end=\"972\">Data Space Inversion (DSI) &#8211; a powerful, efficient method for uncertainty analysis without parameter tuning<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"unine-text-block__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block\">\n\t\t<h3>Course Details and Registration information<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Speaker<\/strong>: Dr. John Doherty<\/li>\n<li><strong>Date<\/strong>: September 1-5, 2025 (5 days, 9 am to 5 pm)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Location<\/strong>: University of Neuch\u00e2tel, building UniMail, Room <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/sbes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/78\/2024-10_UM_E_plans.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">E301-304<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Cost<\/strong>:\n<ul>\n<li>WES PhD School members:<em>&nbsp;no fee<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Others (please contact <a href=\"mailto:School.Earth-Water@unine.ch?subject=PEST course registration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">School.Earth-Water@unine.ch<\/a> for confirmation):\n<ul>\n<li>Academic participants: <em>150 CHF<\/em> <em>per day<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Industrial, government, etc.: <em>500 CHF per day<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Registration:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Please fill in the <a href=\"https:\/\/forms.gle\/UFycgK4C5H79Z9ao7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">REGISTRATION FORM<\/a>&nbsp;before&nbsp;<em>August 15th, 2025<\/em><\/li>\n<li class=\"last\">Registration&nbsp;is on a&nbsp;<em>first-come, first-served<\/em> basis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"unine-text-block__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block\">\n\t\t<h3>What you will Receive<\/h3>\n<p>All participants will receive:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>all slides that are presented in the course<\/li>\n<li>the \u201cPEST Book\u201d<\/li>\n<li>copies of publications on PEST\/PEST++<\/li>\n<li>extra workshops to complete in their own time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"unine-text-block__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block\">\n\t\t<h3>Course Outline<\/h3>\n<p>Below is a course outline. However the material that is covered in the course will respond to the needs of those who attend. Time will be set aside for participants to discuss their own problems. Furthermore, participants are welcome to contact John after the course to continue discussions on matters that are important to them.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><li class=\"nav-item unine-tabs unine-tabs__item d-flex\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<a class=\"nav-link unine-tabs__button\" href=\"#unine-tabs-a69427583c7c2c\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\">\n\t\tDay 1\t<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n<div class=\"tab-pane fade unine-tabs__content unine-tabs__content_item\" id=\"unine-tabs-a69427583c7c2c\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<ul>\n<li>Introductions<\/li>\n<li>Discussion and reflections on decision support modelling<\/li>\n<li>Brief review of linear algebra and geostatistics<\/li>\n<li>What is the metric for successful calibration?<\/li>\n<li>How Bayes theorem is applied in groundwater modelling<\/li>\n<li>Predictive uncertainty and predictive error<\/li>\n<li>Old style calibration; parameter parsimony<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><li class=\"nav-item unine-tabs unine-tabs__item d-flex\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<a class=\"nav-link unine-tabs__button\" href=\"#unine-tabs-a69427583c7cb7\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\">\n\t\tDay 2\t<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n<div class=\"tab-pane fade unine-tabs__content unine-tabs__content_item\" id=\"unine-tabs-a69427583c7cb7\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<ul>\n<li>Highly parameterized inversion and regularization<\/li>\n<li>Subspace methods including singular value decomposition<\/li>\n<li>Tikhonov regularization<\/li>\n<li>Pilot points as a parameterization device<\/li>\n<li>Construction of covariance matrices for parameter regularization and uncertainty analysis<\/li>\n<li>Efficiencies gained through dimensional reduction<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><div class=\"unine-text-block__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block\">\n\t\t<h3><em>About the Presenter<\/em><\/h3>\n<p><em>John Doherty is the author of PEST and PEST-support utility software. Until recently, he also contributed heavily to GMDSI, an industry-sponsored initiative to boost awareness and education on the principles and practice of decision-support groundwater modelling; see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gmdsi.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.gmdsi.org<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Over his career of nearly 50 years, John has worked in the private, public and Tertiary sectors. He holds a PhD degree in Geophysics from University of Queensland and a Doctorate of Science from University of Neuchatel. He holds an adjunct professorial position at Flinders University where he currently supervises a number of PhD students.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>However John as spent most of his career as a consultant, where he leads is own (one man) company, Watermark Numerical Computing. Through his company, John has assisted colleagues worldwide in building, history-matching and deploying models that address issues that have included extraction sustainability, high and low enthalpy geothermal, contaminant containment and remediation, and environmental impacts of mining and coal seam gas extraction.<\/em><\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"unine-image__wrapper \">\n\t\t\t<a class=\"d-inline-block magnific-image\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4.jpg\" title=\"\" aria-label=\"\">\n\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4.jpg 1158w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4-300x62.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4-1024x210.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4-768x158.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4-648x133.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4-432x89.jpg 432w, https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/4-324x67.jpg 324w\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" class=\"unine-image    mb-eighth\" width=\"1158\" height=\"238\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<li class=\"nav-item unine-tabs unine-tabs__item d-flex\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<a class=\"nav-link unine-tabs__button\" href=\"#unine-tabs-a69427583c804b\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\">\n\t\tDay 3\t<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n<div class=\"tab-pane fade unine-tabs__content unine-tabs__content_item\" id=\"unine-tabs-a69427583c804b\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<ul>\n<li>Principles of uncertainty analysis<\/li>\n<li>Nonstationary geostatistics<\/li>\n<li>Generating random hydraulic property fields for structured and unstructured grids through spatial convolution<\/li>\n<li>Linear uncertainty analysis<\/li>\n<li>Ensemble smoothers: theory and practice<\/li>\n<li>Direct predictive hypothesis-testing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><li class=\"nav-item unine-tabs unine-tabs__item d-flex\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<a class=\"nav-link unine-tabs__button\" href=\"#unine-tabs-a69427583c80c4\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\">\n\t\tDay 4\t<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n<div class=\"tab-pane fade unine-tabs__content unine-tabs__content_item\" id=\"unine-tabs-a69427583c80c4\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<ul>\n<li>Uncertainty in uncertainty: parameterizing the prior<\/li>\n<li>Conceptual points and pilot points<\/li>\n<li>Data space inversion<\/li>\n<li>Ensemble space inversion<\/li>\n<li>Hierarchical inversion<\/li>\n<li>History-matching-induced predictive bias and its avoidance<\/li>\n<li>When to use what method<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><li class=\"nav-item unine-tabs unine-tabs__item d-flex\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<a class=\"nav-link unine-tabs__button\" href=\"#unine-tabs-a69427583c8133\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\">\n\t\tDay 5\t<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n<div class=\"tab-pane fade unine-tabs__content unine-tabs__content_item\" id=\"unine-tabs-a69427583c8133\" data-group=\"tab-group_groupe_1\">\n\t<ul>\n<li>Optimization under uncertainty<\/li>\n<li>Data worth analysis<\/li>\n<li>Structural overlay parameters<\/li>\n<li>Some considerations for contaminant transport modelling<\/li>\n<li>Some considerations for low enthalpy geothermal modelling<\/li>\n<li>\u201cGroup therapy\u201d: participants discuss their own problems<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1650989306171{margin-top: 60px !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"unine-gmaps__wrapper \">\n\t<div class=\"unine-gmaps\">\n\t\t<iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/maps\/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d2721.053453991541!2d6.946777312278745!3d46.99992337102025!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x478e0bf45b33cf3b%3A0x77b6f6eb37aadeda!2sUniversity%20of%20Neuch%C3%A2tel%20-%20UniMail!5e0!3m2!1sen!2sch!4v1743506521321!5m2!1sen!2sch\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" style=\"border:0;\" allowfullscreen=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\"><\/iframe>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"unine-text-block-small__wrapper mb-sixth\">\n\t<div class=\"unine-text-block-small font-size-4\">\n\t\t<p class=\"\" data-start=\"56\" data-end=\"76\"><strong data-start=\"56\" data-end=\"76\">How to Get There<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"78\" data-end=\"274\">The <strong>UniMail<\/strong> building is part of the Facult\u00e9 des Sciences at the University of Neuch\u00e2tel. The address is <strong>Rue Emile-Argand 11, 2000 Neuch\u00e2tel<\/strong>. The building&#8217;s opening hours can be found <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/campus\/heures-douverture\/\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"261\" data-end=\"273\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"276\" data-end=\"400\">To reach the building from the <strong>Neuch\u00e2tel train station<\/strong> (Gare Nord), take <strong>bus<\/strong> line <strong>107<\/strong> and get off at the <strong>Portes Rouges<\/strong> stop. From there, cross the bridge, and you\u2019ll find the UniMail building. Alternatively, you can walk directly from the train station via <strong>Esplanade de l&#8217;Europe<\/strong>, which takes about 15-20 minutes.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><span class=\"unine-button__wrapper d-inline-block mb-sixth \">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/146\/PEST-course-program.pdf\" class=\"\n\t\tunine-button \n\n\t\td-inline-block \n\t\tw-100\n\n\t\tpy-sixteenth \n\t\tpx-quarter \n\t  \n\t\tfont-size-4 \n\t\ttext-600 \n\t\ttext-uppercase\n\t\t\" \n\n\t\ttarget=\"_blank\"\t\t \n\t\t\t>\n\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-solid fa-file-pdf\"><\/i>Download the course programme\t<\/a>\n<\/span>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row margin_bottom=&#8221;mb-full&#8221;][vc_column width=&#8221;2\/3&#8243;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1650989306171{margin-top: 60px !important;}&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":257,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"wf_page_folders":[],"class_list":["post-261","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/257"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=261"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":369,"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/261\/revisions\/369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"wf_page_folders","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unine.ch\/phdschool-wes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wf_page_folders?post=261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}